MACRO

Apple’s Great Supply Chain Breakup: Trump’s Tariffs Turn China into a Liability

Francesca Bolastig, ‘27

Apple is facing a difficult reality check: its once China-heavy and ultra-efficient supply chain is now becoming a liability. Why? Tariffs.

Last week, when President Trump ignited a trade war, Apple was one of the hardest to be hit. Trump had targeted China and hit them with 54% tariffs that had spiraled to 145% amid tit-for-tat retaliation. Since most Apple devices are made in China, this lower figure threatened to cut deeply into Apple’s profit margin from their China-made devices that are sold to the U.S. But, the higher figure could potentially obliterate it.

Since its Chinese supply chain is so large and intricate, it cannot be moved or changed easily. Tim Cooke, CEO of Apple, has been deftly playing politics in hopes to protect his strategic supply chain creation, from making investments in China to buy goodwill and working a tariff exemption out during Trump’s first term.

Basically, Apple is trapped in a hole. It has been trying to diversify a final assembly of its products to other low-cost countries like Vietnam and India. Still, while doing so can alleviate some of the impact of Trump’s tariffs on China, it can’t necessarily offset its independence on the U.S.’s primary riva, where lots of the parts inside Apple devices will continue to be made.

Apple cannot begin manufacturing iPhones and its other devices in the U.S. Cooke states that “there isn’t enough labor, skilled and unskilled — and if there was, it would be too costly.” Wedbush Securities, a widely renowned financial services firm, suggests that an American-made iPhone could cost around $3500. 

Zoom out — this isn’t just about Apple. This is a wake-up call to the entire tech industry that tariffs may cause supply-chain risks in the long-run. 

While Apple helped to build “iPhone City” in China, it is now racing to pack its bags before the tariffs get too high. Other tech companies might want to follow Apple’s lead - fast.

Wall Street Caught Between “Soft Landing” and “Hard Pass”

Mosammad Khanom, ‘28

Good Monday, Investors. If the stock market were a Tinder date, the Fed would say, “It's not you. It’s inflation,” as equities wistfully swipe right on rate cuts. Unfortunately, love is unrequited—at least for now.

Let's recap the macro mayhem so far faster than your boss glances at your screen when you say you're “in deep spreadsheets.”

The S&P 500 has been staggering like a toddler after three espressos—record highs one week, depths of despair the next. Why? Because inflation is playing peek-a-boo. February CPI came in hot enough to burn your rate-cut fantasies. Shelter and services continue to wield their price power as if it were 2022. The labor market will not take a chill pill—March added 303,000 jobs, and economists ask themselves if they left something out of Econ 101. Meanwhile, the Fed is spooking rate-cut hopes faster than that last Hinge date. Powell is now literally the monetary policy equivalent of “seen 3 hours ago.” Translation: The market wants rate cuts. The Fed says, “not yet.”

In the meantime, bond yields are in villain mode. The 10-year Treasury yield is once more above 4.4%, so tech stocks are weeping, and equity markets are playing sad Keanu. All that aside, AI is the market's emotional support dog. Nvidia still has the Nasdaq on its back like Atlas, supporting the heavens with a GPU.

Zooming out, geopolitical tensions remain a macro wildcard. The Red Sea isn't calming down, China is posting meh data, and oil prices are flirting with $90 per barrel—reviving 1970s-style stagflation fears.

Bottom line: We’re in macro limbo. Strong economy? Bad for rate cuts. Rate cuts? Good for markets. No recession? Still… good? The market is doing mental gymnastics harder than Simone Biles.

Whether you’re a bull, a bear, or just trying to survive with a portfolio and a coffee, stay tuned. This ride isn’t slowing down.

CPI Cools in March - But Don’t Pop the Champagne Just Yet

Shivam Kwatra, ‘28

Inflation in March took a breather - and for a hot second, it looked like the Fed might finally get to relax. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped 0.1%, its first monthly decline since the early pandemic days of May 2020. Year-over-year, inflation eased to 2.4% from February’s 2.8%, and core inflation (the less dramatic cousin that ignores food and energy) cooled to 2.8% which is its slowest pace in four years. 

But before you break out the victory confetti and book a “Thanks, Jerome Powell!” cake, there’s a plot twist. This report doesn’t include the tariff tsunami that President Trump announced early in April - featuring a new 125% import tax on Chinese goods. 

Consumers finally caught a break with falling prices for energy, airline tickets, and used cars. But shelter inflation - aka rent - barely budged. And services inflation? Still rampant as well. The Fed, now staring down its May meeting, is in a tight spot. On one hand, inflation finally looks like it’s listening to reason. On the other hand? Incoming tariffs could goose prices faster than a speculative tweet about Dogecoin. 

So yes, inflation is falling for now, but with tariffs set to hit like a triple espresso on an empty stomach, don’t be surprised if April’s report is less “soft landing” and more “crash landing.”

TECH

This Startup Wants to Shrink Your Waistline Without a Scalpel

Carson Panter, ‘28

​In a bold move to reshape the weight-loss landscape, Syntis Bio has unveiled SYNT-101, an innovative oral pill designed to replicate the effects of gastric bypass surgery. Announced last Wednesday, April 9th, this once-daily medication aims to provide a non-invasive alternative to current obesity treatments, potentially transforming patient care in this burgeoning market.​

Breaking It Down:

• Mechanism of Action: SYNT-101 functions by temporarily blocking nutrient absorption in the duodenum (the upper part of the small intestine), redirecting nutrients to the lower intestine. This process stimulates satiety hormones like GLP-1 and PYY, promoting feelings of fullness.

• Clinical Progress: Currently undergoing human trials, SYNT-101 is being evaluated for safety, tolerability, and efficacy in nutrient absorption blocking. Full data readouts are anticipated by the end of 2024, with plans to submit an Investigational New Drug (IND) application to the FDA in 2025. ​

• Technological Foundation: The pill leverages Syntis' proprietary SYNT™ technology, which employs a transient polydopamine coating inspired by mussel adhesion properties. This coating safely lines the duodenum, controlling nutrient uptake for up to 24 hours before natural clearance. ​

Economic Implications:

The obesity treatment market is on an upward trajectory, with GLP-1 receptor agonists projected to surpass $150 billion in value by the early 2030s. Syntis Bio's entry with SYNT-101 introduces a novel approach that could capture significant market share, especially among patients seeking non-invasive alternatives to surgery and injectable medications.

Moreover, the development of oral therapies like SYNT-101 could reduce healthcare costs associated with surgical procedures and long-term management of obesity-related conditions. By potentially improving patient adherence and outcomes, Syntis Bio's innovation may contribute to a more sustainable economic model in obesity care.​

As the company progresses through clinical trials and regulatory pathways, the healthcare industry will be watching closely to see if this pill can deliver on its promise and carve out a substantial niche in the competitive weight-loss market.

This Startup’s AI is Slashing Costs

Rachel Wanagosit, ‘27

Writer, May Habib’s artificial intelligence company created in May 2016, is helping companies save millions on labor costs. Writer essentially simplifies tedious and repetitive everyday tasks. 

What can it do?

Tasks can include but are not limited to:

• Responding to email with inquiries of FAQ

• Advertising on platforms like Tiktok and Amazon

• Translating product descriptions into other languages

 Habib notes:

“You’re not selling your software, you’re selling a different way of doing things.”

Have doubts about AI?

Writer addresses the main concerns about AI as it uses only information from documentation so it cannot make anything up. Additionally, client data is not used for training and is retrieved from dedicated servers, this should mitigate the risk of sensitive information leaking.

Even more efficient:

A few weeks ago, we saw DeepSeek shake up ChatGPT’s reputation with talks of its efficiency– being developed for a fraction of ChatGPT’s price. ChatGPT-4 was trained for 100 million and has been developed for 700,000– even less than DeepSeek. 

Her confidence in her software radiates and is justified– evident by most customers expanding contracts by 60%, with a recent spike of 160% in the net retention rate. In short– people see the value her product brings. People will pay millions for her software because Habib is saving them way more in labor costs. Writer has contracts with remarkable companies like Visa, L’Oreal, Spotify, and Hilton. Over 300 companies have signed contracts with her. Fintech companies like Intuit and Lennar have tried the software, and Lennar's CTO even states, “It’s driving volume, it’s driving activity, it’s creating better leads.” 

Writer is currently worth around 1.9 billion, and Habib retains about 15% of Writer, worth about 285 million. The AI software market is worth $114 billion– so just a little bit of that enormous size gives plenty of opportunity for growth within Writer. AI HQ is their newest product, and it should hypothetically be able to replace a working person who pulls data and emails clients.  Her spark is inspiring and she says she is from a family of entrepreneurs allowing her to become so successful.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

The Russia-Ukraine War Under the Trump Administration

Marcus Gonzalez, ‘28

Last Thursday, the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, officially announced that she is stepping down from her post, signaling more complications and tensions between the US and Ukraine during this critical time. While the ambassador has not yet commented on the situation, reporters have noted that her position on the war oftentimes juxtaposes Trump’s more neutral stance on the conflict. 

Appointed in 2022, Ambassador Brink posted statements and gave speeches fervently supporting Ukrainian sovereignty and integrity. This contrasts with Trump who has sought to “recuperate” the aid that the US has given Ukraine and end the conflict as soon as possible. Infamously, this manifested itself as the viral confrontation between Zelensky, Trump, and Vance, in February, in which the President and VP chastised Zelensky for being “ungrateful”. 

With a US delegation arriving in Kyiv to discuss a revised proposal for the US-led development of Ukrainian resources, which many have labelled as “predatory” or “impossible to accept”, the departure of Ambassador Brink will create a critical gap in connection between the two countries which may jeopardize their continued cooperation. At the same time, however, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, remarked during a NATO meeting this past week that the Trump Administration expects Russia to negotiate in good faith, and threatened the possibility of additional sanctions if they fail to do so.

Argentina’s FMI Deal, Gets Rid of Currency Controls

Mateo Alvarez Vergara, ‘27

Last Friday Argentinian president Javier Milei announced his government secured a $20 billion, four-year Extended Fund Facility from the IMF. The loan would provide stability to the country's economy, replenish dwindling foreign currency reserves, and address inflation. Argentina is dismantling "el cepo," a set of restrictive policies that have limited access to foreign currency since 2019. “El cepo” is part of controls that were designed to stabilize the peso but discouraged foreign investment and created a black market for dollars.The deal spans 48 months and involves an immediate disbursement of $12 billion, with an additional $2 billion expected in June. These funds are intended to bolster Argentina's depleted foreign currency reserves, which have been under severe pressure. The central bank announced that starting Monday, the peso will trade within a dynamic range of 1,000–1,400 pesos per dollar, abandoning its fixed peg.

In English what does this mean?
Argentina made a deal with the IMF to borrow $20 billion. In exchange Argentina will get rid of their controls on dollars, instead of tightly controlling the value of the peso (Argentina’s money), the government will let it change based on supply and demand within a set range. This makes it easier for businesses to plan but could mean the peso loses value over time.

No but explain it this like I’m stupid
Argentina is broke, they’re throwing the rules on how to use dollars, and they’re getting $20 billion from the IMF.