GLOBAL OUTLOOK

Milei’s Meme-coin Misadventure

Mateo Alvarez Vergara, ‘27

Argentine President Javier Milei had an eventful Valentine’s Day, but not in the way most would expect. Last Friday evening, Milei took to social media to endorse $LIBRA, a newly launched cryptocurrency supposedly aimed at boosting Argentina's economy. The endorsement sent the token’s value soaring, reaching a staggering market cap of $4.5 billion within hours.

However, just as quickly as it rose, $LIBRA came crashing down, losing 90% of its value. Reports indicate that insiders managed to cash out with $87 million before the collapse. In the aftermath, Milei swiftly deleted his post on X (formerly Twitter) and later claimed he had no prior knowledge of the project or any affiliation with it.

While some of his supporters floated the theory that his account had been hacked, there was no evidence to support this claim. Meanwhile, Argentina’s opposition wasted no time seizing on the controversy, threatening impeachment proceedings against the president.

MACRO

The Housing Market Squeeze

Shivam Kwatra, ‘28

Housing Woes Keep Inflation Stubbornly High

The latest inflation report just dropped, and it wasn’t necessarily the breath of fresh air consumers were hoping for. On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis—much hotter than expected. That pushed year-over-year inflation to 3%, higher than economists had forecast. Translation? The price relief many had been banking on is still nowhere in sight, and the housing market remains one of the biggest obstacles to progress.

The Housing Crunch Hits Hard

This inflation update landed as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wrapped up another round of testimony on Capitol Hill. Despite growing calls from the White House and social media pundits for interest rate cuts, Powell stood his ground: The Fed isn’t ready to ease policy just yet. Investors, who had been betting on rate cuts sooner rather than later, quickly adjusted their outlook. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there’s now a 30% chance the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year, up from 20% the day before. Meanwhile, the odds of just one rate cut in 2024 now stand at 70%.

What’s Driving the Surge?

Inflation isn’t just about housing—prices across multiple sectors kept climbing:

• Grocery prices rose 0.4% from December, with eggs spiking by a jaw-dropping 15%.

• Used car and truck prices jumped 2.2%.

• Gasoline costs increased 1.8% month-over-month.

• Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) climbed 3.3% year-over-year and 0.4% since December, marking the biggest monthly rise in nearly two years.

But housing remains the heavyweight in the inflation equation:

• Shelter costs jumped 0.4% month-over-month and 4.4% year-over-year. Housing alone accounted for 30% of total inflation gains last month, although the annual increase was the lowest in three years.

• Home insurance and lodging costs also shot up, though lodging prices tend to fluctuate frequently.

• Rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—a measure of what homeowners estimate they could charge in rent—each increased 0.4% month-over-month.

“While the labor market is strong and wages are growing, the persistent lack of available homes for sale and high mortgage rates are keeping supply tight and prices elevated,” said Josh Hirt, senior US economist at Vanguard.

When Will Relief Arrive?

There’s some hope on the horizon: Hirt noted that construction of single- and multi-family homes is picking up, and early indicators suggest rental prices may cool. The downside? It could take anywhere from six months to two years before those changes show up in inflation data.

Tariff Tensions Could Make It Worse

Adding another layer of uncertainty, new tariffs could start making a bigger impact soon. With the latest round of trade policies set in motion, most economists predict that their full effects won’t be visible in CPI data for another month or two. So, if January’s inflation figures were discouraging, they may only be the opening act of a longer, bumpier road ahead.

For Powell and the Fed, the challenge is clear: inflation remains a tough opponent, and the housing market isn’t making things any easier.

Hungary for Stability: A Fiscal Glow-Up in Progress

Mosammad Khanom, ‘28

In case you haven't noticed, Hungary recently received some positive economic news. Fitch Ratings changed the nation's outlook from “negative” to “stable.” That's right, Hungary's been working to reduce macroeconomic imbalances—essentially, getting its fiscal and monetary house in order with some pretty sound policies.

The National Bank of Hungary (NHB) has been keeping a tighter monetary policy than your favorite skinny jeans, and the government has been working to reduce the primary deficit since 2023. And not for kicks; it's an intentional step making way for Hungary's slow-and-steady economic comeback. So what's driving the growth? Private consumption (a.k.a. people shopping), investment, and exports. Essentially, Hungary's positioning itself for a bit of an economic glow-up.

Now, let's talk numbers. The government aims to reduce its fiscal deficit to a manageable 3.7% by 2025. How? By lowering interest expenditure and granting tax cuts to families, because who doesn't love a nice tax cut? But in all this optimism, Hungary's Fiscal Council is still playing it cool with a conservative projection.

Fitch maintains its rating for Hungary at a “BBB” level. Not terrible, but not great either. It's kind of like the grade you get on your report card—good, but you know you can do better. The 3.4% growth projection for 2025 is fine, but let's just say that Hungary's not uncorking the champagne just yet.

So, Hungary’s got its financial house in order. And while they're still in “BBB” status, the outlook looks pretty stable going forward. Now, about that 3.7% fiscal deficit target. Who knew national economics could be so thrilling?

TECH

Musk’s Bid for OpenAI: $97.4 Billion Wrench in Altman’s Vision

Armaan Karnad, ‘28

Opening Salvo:

OpenAI, the most well-known Artificial Intelligence model in the world and our GPAs’ savior, lies at the heart of Elon Musk’s latest disruption. Last Monday afternoon, Musk and a group of investors announced a $97.4 billion bid for all of OpenAI’s assets. Musk justified his bid, stating that he wished to revert the company to the “open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was.” 

Retaliation:

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman boldly retorted with a post on X.com, where he not only refused Musk’s offer but countered with a bid to buy the website at $9.74 Billion. By citing X’s cratered value, Altman didn’t just insult Elon in his own court, but rather he took a full blow at him and his court. By Friday, the entirety of OpenAI’s board announced their backing of Sam’s word, putting an end to Musk’s bid once and for all. 

Consequences:

At the center of the drama between Altman and Musk is the topic of valuation. OpenAI is a unique company as its price is truly what someone is willing to pay for it, since there are no other public competitors that it can be measured against to judge the fairness of its value. Thus, Musk’s bid could be viewed as a ploy to set expectations on the value of the company. It’s also entirely possible that he is just toying with Altman and OpenAI, as he left the company in 2018 following a failed attempt to gain control of the firm.

Sniffing Out the Future: Canaery's Nose-Computer Interface Enhances Canine Detection

Carson Panter, ‘28

Dogs have long been our frontline detectors, sniffing out explosives, narcotics, and even medical conditions. However, traditional training methods are time-consuming and limit each dog to a specific scent category. Enter Canaery, a Florida-based startup aiming to revolutionize scent detection by merging canine prowess with cutting-edge neurotechnology. 

The Technology

On Wednesday, February 12th the Canaery partnered with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, part of the US Department of Energy, to develop an array that reads odor information taken from animals. The company’s innovation involves a nose–computer interface designed to decode odors in real-time. This system utilizes a delicate array, thinner than tissue paper and a quarter the size of a postage stamp, placed on the surface of a dog's olfactory bulb—the brain's hub for processing smells. When the dog encounters a scent, neurons in the olfactory bulb activate, and the array captures these neural signals. These signals are then transmitted wirelessly to a computer that employs artificial intelligence to interpret the unique odor patterns. Initial tests have been conducted on rats, with plans to adapt the technology for canines.

Potential Applications

This advancement could significantly broaden the scope of canine detection capabilities across various sectors:

• Security: Enhancing bomb and contraband detection at airports and public venues.

• Healthcare: Identifying diseases through scent markers, potentially aiding in early diagnosis.

• Environmental Monitoring: Detecting hazardous substances and environmental toxins.

• Search and Rescue: Improving the efficiency of locating disaster survivors or human remains.

Economic Implications

The integration of this technology could have substantial economic implications:

• Cost Reduction: Traditional training for detection dogs is expensive and time-intensive. Canaery's interface could streamline training processes, reducing associated costs.

• Supply Chain Stability: The U.S. currently imports a significant portion of its detection dogs, leading to potential vulnerabilities in supply. Enhancing domestic capabilities with this technology could mitigate reliance on foreign sources.
   wired.com

• Market Expansion: By enabling dogs to detect a wider array of substances without specialized training, industries such as security, healthcare, and environmental services may see growth, leading to increased demand for such enhanced detection services.

While the promise of Canaery's nose–computer interface is evident, considerations regarding the safety and welfare of the animals involved remain paramount. As the technology progresses from prototype to practical application, ensuring ethical implementation will be crucial.

TikTok is Back in the App Store and Play Store

Rachel Wanagosit, ‘27

Last Thursday, Google Play and the Apple App Store restored TikTok to its US servers.

When was it banned?

On January 18th,  the app went dark for about 14 hours when Trump came into office. The following day, Trump signed an order delaying it for 75 days– or April 6th 2025. When it came back, it was only accessible to users who did not delete the app during the ban.

Why was it banned?

The ban was because Tiktok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance posed a serious threat to national security. Byteddance argued back that the ban infringed on the free speech of users. The ban made it illegal to distrubute on Apple App and Google Play Stores.

What could happen to the app?

Trump has floated the idea of X owner Elon Musk or Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison purchasing it. He’s also suggested at least 50% American ownership. There is still no deal that has been agreed on. After the 75 days are up, TikTok could be different than we ever knew it in America. 

CONSUMER TRENDS

The Growing Impact of Super Bowl Advertisements on Consumers 

Caitlin Sigler, ‘27

When watching live TV, ads are typically considered to be a break where you can walk away and go to the bathroom or get more food before your show starts back up again—but not with the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl has cultivated a very specific culture around their ads where they have now become part of the event. 

In 1965, there was a $37,500 fee for having your ad play during the Super Bowl, which would be $378,179.76 today based on inflation. In 2025, it cost $8 million dollars for a 30-second time slot in the Super Bowl, and this shift could be because of both an increase in views and how consumer driven we have become. In 1965 there were approximately 24 million people watching the Super Bowl, and in 2025 there was an estimated over 115 million. The increasing cost and number of views is a direct reflection of the influence the Super Bowl has over people in the United States. 

When The Daily interviewed Michael Goldberg, a professor in the Department of Design and Innovation at Case Western Reserve University Weatherhead School of Management and the executive director of the Veale Institute for Entrepreneurship, he provided valuable insight on the relationship between the Super Bowl and its advertisements. When asked about the perceived evolution of Super Bowl commercials in terms of impact on consumers behavior he said “When [he] watched the Super Bowl with [his] family as a kid, there was only one relatively small screen to focus on, which was showing the game and the commercial breaks. Now, viewers are engaging with their phones (and other screens) in addition to watching the Super Bowl on a giant flatscreen TV. Thus, advertisers are using Super Bowl advertisements to encourage views to engage with their brands on social media or through mobile apps.  This hopefully extends the impact of Super Bowl commercials beyond the actual game.  And critically, advertisers are able to capture valuable data and user information from viewers engaging on their mobile devices in a way they could not do in the past.” 

The Super Bowl and its ads seem to be growing in popularity with no signs of slowing down, over time we will see just how much of an impact the ads from the 2025 Super Bowl had on consumers and their spending habits, and if this trend will continue.

Egg Limits and Rising Prices: What's Behind the Surge at Costco and Trader Joe's?

Sanjana Alam, ‘28

Consumers have noticed a shift in the egg market in the past few months, especially in major grocery chains such as Costco and Trader Joe’s. Both stores have imposed purchase limits on eggs due to the lack of supply and soaring prices, leaving consumers to question the cause behind these changes and the long-term impact on the egg market. 

The Price Hike

It is no surprise to hear about the exponential increase in egg prices. Egg prices have surged nationwide, with CNN reporting a 14% increase from November to December alone, with an expected growth of 20% in 2025. The latest consumer price index displayed that the average Grade A egg price in the US reached a record high of $4.95, over double the average price reported in August 2023– $2.04. This is only the nationwide average, with most local grocery stores selling eggs for almost $10 a dozen. The sharp increase in egg prices is due to a combination of factors, primarily the recent Avian influenza outbreak, also known as the bird flu. Once a trace of the virus is found on a farm, the entire flock must be killed to limit the spread of the virus. Since massive egg farms house over one million birds, the outbreak can severely restrict the supply of eggs. Since the bird flu began, over 158 million birds have been killed, significantly reducing the egg supply. 

Egg Limits: A Strategic Response

In response to the lack of eggs, major grocery chains such as Costco and Trader Joe’s have implemented limits on the number of egg cartons consumers can purchase. Trader Joe’s has a limit of a carton per customer. Costco, known for its bulk sales, has set a limit of about three cartons per member. These limits are part of an effort to prevent panic buying, which could further exacerbate supply shortages and price inflation.

For shoppers, the limits may feel like a frustrating inconvenience, but they reflect the current state of the egg market. For producers, the volatility in egg prices presents a tough challenge, as they are forced to adjust their production schedules and pricing models based on fluctuating demand and unpredictable costs.

Looking Ahead

While it's hard to predict how long the current situation will last, the US Department of Agriculture reported that they expect for there to be a 20% increase in egg prices, regardless of whether or not the bird flu outbreaks are controlled. 

Consumers may need to adjust their grocery shopping habits, search for deals, and consider alternative protein sources. Egg prices are one of many consumer trends to watch closely in 2025.

Global Warming is Roasting Your Coffee Prices

Karam Youssef, ‘26

Climate change is heating up coffee prices – and your wallet may feel the burn. 

Arabica coffee beans are the most widely used coffee beans across the entire world, making up 60-70% of global coffee production. At the beginning of 2025 one pound of Arabica coffee beans costed over $4, making them highest they have ever been in history. 

With huge temperature changes causing droughts due to climate change weather patterns–coffee growing regions are suffering. South America and Southeast Asia are facing extreme trouble harvesting their coffee beans for the complete opposite reasons. Brazil is currently undergoing a severe drought, while Vietnam faces constant flooding due to major rain storms/typhoons. These two nations make up 56% of the world's total coffee production, and if they can’t keep producing at such a high level…your Dunkin iced coffee could go up a couple bucks.

While there is currently worry within the larger corporations who are reliant on the coffee bean such as Folgers and Keurig, there is no need to worry for the average coffee drinker just yet. Although it’s expected that the increases in prices for the companies will be passed onto consumers eventually, as of now the price of coffee has just been higher on commodity markets for coffee traders. Prices are expected to increase for the rest of us at the end of the first quarter. 

If saving the planet isn’t enough motivation for the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then maybe saving your morning coffee is. Without emissions cuts, climate change will send coffee prices skyrocketing.