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- Ram's Economic Digest
Ram's Economic Digest
Issue IV- 10.18.24
Good morning, Rams! Temperatures are starting to drop here in the Bronx as we officially enter sweater weather. For our readers from out of state, ship your winter jackets now before it’s too late. For all readers, have your Halloween costumes planned now so it’s not a day-of, Party City emergency. We’ve made both mistakes far too many times.
CONSUMER TRENDS
Google Lens is Making Shopping Easier Than Ever
Shopping just got a whole lot more convenient thanks to Google’s newest feature, Google Lens. Imagine taking a walk and seeing a pair of shoes that you love, but you don’t want to ask the person wearing them where they got them from. Now, with Google Lens, you can easily snap a picture of the shoes, and Google will find the shoes for you, finding the exact product or similar options for you to buy.
Google Lens uses advanced image recognition technology to identify objects that are in photos, taking the objects and cross-referencing them with online listings. Whether the item is clothing, furniture, or an object you want more information about, Google Lens provides its users with links to retailers and information about the product you took a picture of. Google Lens has been making shopping easier since consumers spend less time searching for an item.
Google Lens isn’t just for shopping. Google Lens can also be used to identify objects, translate texts, and provide information on products you are interested in. Google Lens is a powerful tool, blending convenience with discovery, making it transformative in the market. As technology continues to evolve, tools like Google Lens are transforming how we shop, turning every sight into a potential shopping opportunity.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Panda Diplomacy in DC
via Pixabay
This Tuesday, two pandas were sent from China to the National Zoo in Washington D.C. as another chapter in China’s plan for “panda diplomacy”. Since the 90s, Beijing has been sending cute pandas (and they are very cute) to other countries in order to hopefully boost their endangered population, allow other visitors to see the rare species, and boost their national image. Despite the complex motivations behind this program, environmentalists at the time of the policy’s inception thought that it would be a key driver of saving the panda population from habitat loss. Unfortunately, the reluctance of pandas to breed in captivity, combined with the oftentimes exploitative nature of zoos, has led to very negative results for this program. Many zoologists believe that captivity is making it harder for the pandas to breed due to numerous psychological and biological factors that conflict with the practices and realities of zoos. For example, there is an extreme temperature difference between panda enclosures in Indonesia and their naturally cool habitat.
Therefore, there is a substantial argument in favor of zoos releasing the animals into their natural habitats. Conversely, Annalisa Meyer, a spokesperson for the National Zoo, argues that zoos prevent pandas from going extinct, and while efforts to repopulate have not gone as planned, their research allows them to better protect the species in the future. Over the next year, more pandas are expected to arrive at zoos in San Diego and San Francisco, demonstrating that “panda diplomacy” will be around for a long time to come.
Additionally, China recently released their “panda census” numbers that have raised questions and concerns regarding China’s ability and willingness to provide accurate numbers of wild and captive panda populations. The National Zoo (the same zoo that defends its panda practices as “restoring the species”) stated that China’s census practices had very little to “no quantitative data” to justify their numbers. With over one million dollars being spent for each pair of pandas in the United States, experts feel that Beijing needs to be held accountable for their mysterious methods of counting pandas. Ultimately, China’s exploitation of pandas for their diplomatic and economic potential, while ignoring their continued deforestation of panda habitats, calls into question the future of pandas in the face of extinction.
Rising Energy Demand and Tech’s Clean Energy Play
On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency published its annual World Energy Outlook for 2024, and surprisingly, global energy demand is rising much faster than expected!
By 2035, there will be 6% more energy needed than expected in last year’s report, thanks to the increased need for air conditioning, cooling heat waves, factories, electric vehicles, and data centers.
Sounds pretty intense, but worry not! The report predicts that by the end of the decade, countries will be able to build enough lower-emission power plants to match the rise in demand.
China is crushing it when it comes to wind and solar power, accounting for 60% of the growth last year. But even with all that renewable energy, there still needs to be a lot of work to make it reliable.
In order to truly tackle global warming, carbon emissions would need to be zero by mid-century, so low-carbon electricity sources would need to be constructed twice as fast as they are right now.
China’s role here is huge. Their solar expansion is moving so fast that by the early 2030s, their solar power alone could outshine the entire electricity demand in the U.S. today. Pretty crazy, right?
Tech companies are rapidly building data centers thanks to developments such as AI, remote work, and the growth of high-speed streaming.
Amazon just announced that it’s dropping over $500 million dollars on nuclear power to keep things clean while powering services like generative AI.
And they’re not alone - Google and Microsoft are doing the same. Amazon’s move, along with Google’s new deal with Kairos, is giving nuclear fission a boost, even as nuclear fusion and renewable energy sources like solar and wind - which have gotten cheaper in the last decade - continue to grow.
China to Reciprocate Tariffs on EU Car Imports
Looks like China and the EU are playing a game of tariff ping pong. The EU announced it would impose tariffs on Chinese-manufactured EVs back in June, which would take effect at the end of October. With these tariffs going as high as 45%, the Chinese Minister of Commerce He Yadong announced last week they are considering imposing tariffs on large-engine, fueled-powered cars, though he made no deliberation as to when these tariffs would take place or what the extent of such tariffs would be. If China were to raise tariffs, German automakers would likely be the most affected due to their large volume of cars exported to China. Between January and August 2023, the EU exported 196,000 of these vehicles to China. Chinese officials have invited EU officials to visit China for further negotiations. However, as of now, the EU remains steadfast in keeping the tariffs - which would apply to Chinese-manufactured EVs for the next 5 years.
MACRO
Is Nuclear the Clear Solution? Big Tech says Yes!
via NY Times
Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have just invested billions of dollars into nuclear energy to get on the path of providing emission-free electricity. Of course, no energy source is completely emissions-free, but nuclear power is currently the most viable option.
Although it produces about 4x less of CO2 emissions than natural gas, 9x less than coal, it produces 13x more than wind power. The demand for energy is exploding because tech companies need to solve their inevitable need for enormous amounts of energy for A.I. data centers with the rise of A.I. Google AI’s search summary, which is currently prone to inaccuracy and unreliable, consumes ten times the amount of energy as a normal Google search.
Why nuclear?
Big tech companies used to invest in wind and solar energy as renewable sources, but have shifted to nuclear energy because of its greater availability. Nuclear energy can be generated at any time, unlike wind/solar, making it a more reliable energy source.
How much are they investing?
On Wednesday, Former-CEO of Microsoft, Bill Gates invested more than $1 billion in a start-up called TerraPower, which is working to develop smaller reactors. Three-Mile Island nuclear plant will reopen after closing primarily due to economic hardship. It will begin to sell nuclear power to Microsoft.
Amazon has just invested $500 million in X-energy and is also working on developing modular nuclear reactors.
Kairos Power and Google have agreed to develop a 500-MW fleet of molten salt nuclear reactors by 2035 to power Google’s data centers. It could cost up to a billion dollars per reactor, according to a managing director at S&P Global Ratings,
“Revitalizing America’s nuclear sector is key to adding more carbon-free energy to the grid and meeting the needs of our growing economy — from A.I. and data centers to manufacturing and health care,” the U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer M. Granholm, said in a statement.
Nuclear seems perfect, but here are some obstacles to consider:
High cost of new reactors.
Construction delays.
Lack of permanent storage site for spent nuclear energy, which needs to be contained under strict conditions to maintain safety.
The building of new nuclear reactors will create jobs and raise GDP. According to the company, Microsoft’s deal will create approximately 3,400 jobs and bring in more than $3 billion in state and federal taxes. It also said the agreement will add $16 billion to Pennsylvania's GDP.
Washington’s Cobalt Cope
via WSJ
“Chinese firms are amassing an alarming share of the Congolese Cobalt pie. The Biden administration is not a fan.”
Cobalt is a metal found in everything from fighter jets to fertilizer. This mineral has seen a major surge in demand recently due to its critical role in producing green-energy platforms such as electric vehicles.
75% of cobalt’s supply is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has suffered from political and economic instability for decades. What’s perhaps more troubling is that Chinese firms have been buying American and European mining operations in the Congo for over a decade.
Recently, the Biden administration engaged in talks with three firms to purchase Chemaf, one of the largest non-Chinese cobalt producers in the world. The end goal is simple: loosen China’s chokehold on cobalt supplies.
Ultimately, the success of U.S. efforts to halt China’s growing cobalt supply share will come down to how Washington can make the DRC attractive to American investors. This is difficult since the Congo is plagued by poor infrastructure, a lack of skilled workers, and wide-scale political corruption. Further complicating factors include the dicey practices and debts of the target firm, Chamef. According to accounts from the Wall Street Journal’s 2018 visit to a Chamef mine, numerous freelance workers were spotted without safety equipment, and operations such as flooding and excavations were carried out haphazardly, leading to multiple worker deaths.
Tax Proposals Stir Republican Concerns
Donald Trump has been planning to implement new tax proposals that will eliminate tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. Many Republicans are expressing their caution and delaying their support until at least after the election.
Senator Mike Crapo and Representative Jason Smith have been expressing their concerns about the cost of this plan, which is estimated to be a whopping fifteen trillion dollars over the next ten years, and they have expressed that they are non-committal to Trump’s plans. Some of Former President Trump’s other economic proposals include:
Reinstating entire state and local tax (SALT) deductions
Creating new car loan interest deductions
These proposals contradict the goals of his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which aimed to limit deductions to simplify the tax code. Finally, Trump also tried to incentivize domestic manufacturing by lowering the corporate tax rate; however, its feasibility still needs to be determined.
Overall, Republicans are faced with the challenge of supporting and balancing such ambitious tax cut proposals with current fiscal realities, which are high interest rates and deficits. Trump’s efforts to eliminate taxes may undermine the progress of the 2017 tax reforms as it would contribute to further complications in the tax system once again.
TECH
Restaurants Making the Flip to Robotics
via Tech Startups
Robots flipping burgers and frying fries? It’s not science fiction—it’s happening now, and Miso Robotics is leading the charge. Their kitchen assistant, “Flippy,” has been making waves in the food service industry. The company believes it could soon be a fixture in kitchens everywhere. Last Sunday, Miso sold out initial units of their new kitchen robot in one week.
What is Flippy?
Flippy is an AI-powered robotic arm designed to handle some of the most tedious tasks in a quick-service restaurant (QSR) kitchen. From grilling patties to deep-frying fries, Flippy can work tirelessly, freeing up human staff for other tasks. Initially launched at White Castle in 2020, the newest iteration, Flippy 2, is smaller, faster, and more affordable. It’s not just about flashy tech—Flippy is about efficiency and consistency, two qualities highly prized in the fast-paced world of food service.
Economic Benefits for Restaurants
Beyond its cool factor, Flippy has the potential to reshape restaurant economics significantly. Labor shortages continue to plague the food service industry, increasing wages and operational costs. Miso Robotics sees its technology as a solution to these challenges, offering a way for restaurants to automate repetitive kitchen tasks and reduce reliance on human workers.
While the upfront cost of installing a Flippy unit might seem steep, the long-term savings are clear. With Flippy, restaurants can reduce labor costs while improving kitchen output, especially during high-demand hours. Robots don’t need breaks, sick days, or overtime pay, making them an attractive option for businesses looking to stabilize their bottom lines in a challenging economic climate.
The Broader Impact on Jobs
While Flippy’s efficiency is good news for restaurant owners, it raises questions about job displacement. Automation is often viewed as a threat to low-wage jobs, and kitchen robots are no exception. However, Miso Robotics argues that its technology is meant to augment human labor, not replace it. By handling dangerous, repetitive tasks, Flippy allows employees to focus on higher-value roles like customer service and kitchen management.
In fact, as labor shortages persist, automation could be the key to helping the industry scale without compromising quality. By automating tedious tasks, restaurants can run with fewer employees while still keeping pace with rising consumer demand, especially in the fast food and delivery segments.
The Future of Automated Kitchens
Miso Robotics’ vision extends far beyond a few robots here and there. The company sees a future where Flippy is a standard feature in kitchens nationwide, reducing operational costs and boosting productivity for thousands of restaurants. It’s already gaining traction with chains like White Castle, and the ripple effects could be felt across the entire industry.
In a world where efficiency is vital, Flippy is more than just a flashy robot—it represents a fundamental shift in how we think about food service. And for Miso Robotics, that’s an economic game-changer.
Which sector was your favorite this week? |
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